Silver Pulls Back After 13-Year High—But Trend Remains Intact
Silver posted a volatile week, briefly spiking to a 13-year high of $36.89 before retreating for four consecutive sessions and closing near $36.31. The pullback followed a clean breakout above key resistance levels at $34.87 and $35.40, which now serve as pivotal technical support. While gold benefited more directly from safe-haven flows tied to renewed Middle East tensions, silver’s dual role as both an industrial and precious metal left it more vulnerable to short-term selling.
Despite recent weakness, silver remains structurally bullish. The metal defended the $35.40 breakout zone, and its positioning above the 52-week moving average at $31.29 reinforces longer-term strength. Until silver clears $36.89 with conviction, price action is likely to consolidate within a $35.40–$36.89 range, with any dips toward the lower end likely attracting strategic buying.
Fed Policy and Inflation Signals Driving Expectations
Last week’s softer U.S. CPI print—headline at just 0.1% and core CPI cooling to 2.8%—provided tailwinds by pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower. This inflation data shifted expectations toward a more accommodative Federal Reserve later in the year. However, the upcoming June 18 FOMC decision and dot plot will determine whether those dovish hopes gain traction.
Futures markets now price in a 99.7% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, but Powell’s press conference and the new projections could alter timing expectations for potential cuts. Any surprise tilt toward easing could boost silver above the $36.89 barrier.
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